The hottest Shanghai medium-term shock is poised,

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Shanghai medium term: shock and momentum, glass futures prices rose moderately

Figure 1: domestic glass spot and futures price trend in recent months (unit: yuan/ton)

in May, glass futures prices rose rapidly, and fell slightly at the end of the month. At the same time, glass enterprises continue to raise factory prices, and the price trend is basically synchronized. 5 if the heat radiation of heat dissipation is our only concern, on January 29, the main 1309 contract closed at 1400 yuan/ton, up 57 yuan/ton or 4.2% from 1343 yuan/ton at the end of April

under the background of the gradual commencement of construction projects in various regions, spot enterprises intend to increase the spot price. At the East China glass enterprise meeting held at the end of May, everyone agreed to increase the average ex factory price by 60 yuan/ton, and at the Northeast joint meeting, it was agreed to increase the ex factory price by 40 yuan/ton, although it is difficult to fully implement in the end. However, it is still a high probability event for prices to rise steadily

we believe that the glass futures price is expected to remain strong in June, and general speculators can operate with more ideas

first, the real estate policy remains neutral and empty

following the pilot real estate tax in Shanghai and Chongqing, China's pilot real estate tax reform will be expanded this year. Recently, the general office of the State Council issued the notice on the opinions on the key work of deepening economic system reform in 2013, which clearly stated that "expanding the pilot scope of personal housing property tax reform" is one of the key contents of this year's economic system reform. In this way, when the urbanization development plan has not yet been implemented, the real estate policy level is still empty, which will have a great impact on the future price of glass

however, from the data of real estate itself, the current industry development is good. In April, China's commercial housing sales increased by 38% year-on-year, faster than the 37.1% growth rate in March. In April, the new construction area of houses increased by 1.9% year-on-year, while in March, the new construction area of houses decreased by 1.9% year-on-year

Figure 2 infiltration of the improved matrix into the filler: year-on-year change in commodity sales area and glass price

year-on-year rise in automobile sales in February and April

according to the automobile sales data in April this year published by the China Automobile Industry Association. In April, China's automobile sales volume was 1.84 million, with a year-on-year increase of 13.23. Compared with March, the year-on-year growth rate rebounded slightly. In March this year, car sales increased by 13.18% year-on-year. We expect that in 2013, under the guidance of promoting domestic demand, the year-on-year growth rate of China's automobile sales will increase. In 2012, Chen Weidong told China to sell 19.3064 million cars, a year-on-year increase of 4.33%. The China Automobile Association had previously predicted that China's auto sales would increase by about 7% this year

Figure 3: car sales rose year-on-year in April

third, the new production capacity was put into operation rapidly, and the glass price was under pressure

after entering may, manufacturers had strong confidence, most of them believed that the spot price would rise in the aftermarket, and some production lines began ignition production. Among them, 500 tons of glass has been produced in the fourth line of cold repair and restoration line of China Resources, 1000 tons of glass has been produced in the third line of Jingzhou Yijun new line, and the actual melting capacity of the first line of Xianning South Glass Co., Ltd., which has been ignited some time ago, is 1200 tons; The second line is 700 tons, but it has not been ignited. In the later stage, the improvement of market prices also stimulated the further launch of new capacity. In terms of inventory, on May 25, the inventory of production enterprises was 28.34 million heavy boxes, a decrease of 320000 heavy boxes from the previous week, reaching the low point after the Spring Festival

according to the spot law of previous years, the demand for glass will gradually improve from May to November. Recently, the glass factory warehouse has increased the ex factory price, but the downstream purchase volume has not increased. The downstream enterprises have great resistance and wait-and-see mood, and the short-term price is difficult to continue to rise. However, from the perspective of production capacity, China's glass production capacity will also continue to increase this year, which is an important factor to curb the spot price of futures

Figure 4: China's glass production capacity continues to increase

IV. operation strategy

we believe that after continuously increasing the ex factory price, the downstream purchasing power has not been enhanced, and the conditions for a sharp rise in price are still immature. Considering that the consumption in southern China will be affected by the plum rain season, the glass price may remain volatile and it is difficult to continue to rise rapidly

on the other hand, the overall sales situation this year is better than last year. Under the condition that there is no major negative real estate policy, the glass futures price may run stronger after digesting the spring used for shock absorption in the early stage. In terms of operation, wait for it to stabilize again and go long on bargain hunting. In order to prevent the risk of wide range volatility, the position is controlled within 20%

the content of this article is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors operate accordingly at their own risk

China glass () Department

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