The hottest Shanghai nickel short-term correction

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Shanghai nickel's short-term correction will continue

previously, the U.S. government imposed historically severe sanctions on Russia, including Rusal, the global aluminum giant, in the sanctions list, making aluminum prices rise sharply. As one of the largest nickel suppliers in the world, whether Russian nickel is sanctioned has also triggered speculation in the market

in addition, LME delisted two Russian nickel brands on April 17. Although this move was voluntarily proposed by Russian nickel six months ago, it also stimulated the sharp rise in nickel prices in a short time. However, at present, the fundamentals of nickel market are still weak, and the nickel price may continue to fall in the near future

The impact of the recent trade war on the market cannot be ignored. U.S. President trump has made a series of moves to create trade barriers to other countries on issues such as tariffs, but this issue has ushered in a turnaround. On April 23, U.S. Treasury Secretary manuchin said that the United States was considering Rusal's request to withdraw it and then connect it to the offline sanctions list. The U.S. Treasury Department also announced that it would postpone the suspension of business exchanges between the United States and Rusal until October 23, which greatly reduced the expectation of the United States' subsequent sanctions on Russian nickel and weakened the market's concern about the continued expansion of the scope of the trade war

recently, US bond yields have continued to rise, pushing the US dollar higher and suppressing commodity prices denominated in US dollars

on the one hand, the U.S. economy has a good trend. The economic beige book released by the United States on April 18 shows that the outlook for the U.S. economy remains optimistic. The current tense situation in the employment market will push up wage growth, resulting in rising inflation, which is also an important reason for the recent rise in U.S. bond yields

on the other hand, the degree of economic optimism in the eurozone has weakened recently. ECB President Draghi said he was confident that inflation would move closer to the target in the medium term, but there was still uncertainty about the degree of economic idleness. Last week, European Central Bank Management Committee Leroy said that it was unlikely to stop QE in September or December. In addition, in terms of economic data, the growth momentum of the eurozone sometimes weakened. The final value of CPI in the euro zone in March was 1.3%, lower than the expected 1.4%; The initial value of Markit manufacturing PMI in the euro zone fell to 56 in April, expected to be 56.1, compared with the previous value of 56.6

on the whole, the US dollar has continued to rise recently, reaching the 91 level, and there is still room for strength in the future, which will suppress the nickel price to a certain extent

the supply side is expected to be loose and suspended in lubricating oil

before the end of the rainy season in the Philippines, the price of some domestic grades of nickel ore has ushered in a wave of decline, the domestic port inventory of nickel ore has also shown a low rebound trend, and the supply side of nickel ore is expected to be loose

although the nickel inventory of LME and the previous period showed a downward trend, the inventory of stainless steel, which accounts for a large proportion of the total nickel consumption in the downstream, has always remained high. According to the statistics of 51 stainless steel plastic parts in permanently bonded high-voltage batteries, in the first ten days of April, the total inventory of 15 stainless steel warehouses in Foshan was 160672 tons, and the inventory of stainless steel samples in Wuxi was 256725 tons. The total inventory of the two places increased by 7953 tons month on month compared with the last ten days of March, and the total inventory of stainless steel was still at a high level in the past four years, and the downstream demand was still weak. In addition, ferronickel, as a substitute for nickel in the production of stainless steel, has also begun to callback recently, which is also difficult to support the nickel price

in general, the current trade war situation has eased, the US sanctions against Russia tend to be relaxed, and the pattern of a stronger dollar and weaker fundamentals may continue the short-term correction trend of nickel prices. However, in the long run, the global supply and demand balance is still slightly short, and the short-term correction of nickel prices will not change the long-term upward trend

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